Consumption baseline

"We have made a public reduction commitment and I cannot prove a single kilowatt-hour of it."

Meter data existed at fifteen-minute resolution but consumption moved with production volume and weather. Without a counterfactual baseline, any reduction claim was unfalsifiable.

Meter ingestion with gap handling, a weather- and production-normalised baseline model per site, and a verification report that states measured savings with a confidence interval rather than a single number.

Two sites had meters replaced mid-year. Baselines are now versioned per meter generation and the discontinuity is shown in the report.

ASHRAE Great Energy Predictor III + NOAA weather

Baseline model and the verification report with intervals. The meter-generation versioning is in the write-up only.